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The skeptics were right: Climate changes naturally & these natural changes outweigh any man-made influences

A Pacific Reason Why Global Warming has Stopped

The Hockey Schtick — August 30, 2013

An interesting week in climate change science and climate change politics – sometimes a little difficult to distinguish between them!

We have a new paper published in Nature which ties the current hiatus in global-warming to cooling in the eastern equatorial pacific, a sample area covering just 8.2% of the ocean surface. I quote: “Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling.”

We also have another paper, published the same day in Nature Climate Change, seeking to explain the mismatch between observed and estimated warming over the last twenty years, specifically with reference to “some combination of errors in external forcing, model response and internal climate variability”.

Judith Curry has examined both of these papers in her blog and I shall be making reference to her important comments on them.

We are also approaching crunch time in the Arctic, with predictions of continuing catastrophic melt by alarmists looking to be increasingly untenable. In fact, 2013 is shaping up to be the year when Arctic ice started to recover at record rateswhen compared to the all time (well, since 1978 anyway) low recorded in Sept 2012. No doubt, as with the global warming pause, we will soon be hearing from the Arctic alarmists that the ‘death spiral’ of sea-ice decline was never predicted to be a continuous one and therefore we should expect interruptions (albeit, massive, record breaking ones) in the downward trend.

It looks to me like we are now seeing the beginnings of an acknowledgement by the wider climate science community that natural processes (in particular those mediated by ENSO and PDO cycles – El Nino Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, respectively) can have a significant effect on our climate in that they can interrupt rapid predicted CO2 mediated warming to create a 15 year pause and even set the planet off cooling again. However, there seems to be a lack of an accompanying acknowledgement, inherent in this argument, that therefore natural climate forcings have a far more significant role to play in climate change, comparable to, or greater even, than hypothesised anthropogenic influences. Continue reading full article, here…..

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